09 Jun The Preposterous Movement of ‘Duterte Resign’
JUAN SAYS: We found a petition in Carlos Celdran’s page asking Mayor Duterte to resign his post as President of the Philippines, when he hasn’t taken his oath yet. Truth be told, all Mayor Duterte has done was talk and we would like to wait for him to take action before we give him any judgments or demands to leave his would be post. Doing so as premature as… well… now… would really be detrimental to the Philippines.
We found this facebook post by Sass Rogando Sasot which best articulates why we also think that asking Duterte to resign prior to his oath taking is a very bad idea. Many scream #NeverAgain or #NoToMartialLaw without thinking that their demands for Duterte to resign would bring us closer to what we fear. Minsan kailangan mag-isip. Hindi yung post lang ng post sa facebook.
Commentary by Sass Rogando Sasot
So Carlos Celdran has just started a petition urging Duterte to resign already. He said that Duterte has already proven himself “to be unworthy, unstable, and unfit to run a nation of 100 million people.” So he should just resign. Don’t give Celdran a job that requires strategic thinking. He’ll be terrible at it.
What would be the end game of the resignation of Duterte? Perhaps Celdran is thinking this: when Robredo replaces Duterte as President, we will have a stable nation, champagne for everyone! I love Robredo, but this view is a cotton candy view of politics. Time to live in the political reality as we find it and not as how we think it should be, as Montaigne would say.
This is the reality. Marcos Jr was voted as the majority vice president in 13 out of 38 provinces in Luzon, the most vote rich group of islands in the country; and the plurality vice president in 9 of them. On the other hand, Robredo was voted as the majority vice president in 6 and plurality vice president in 8.
Majority means the candidate got more than 50% of the votes; plurality means < 50%.
Marcos Jr was also the majority vice president in 2 out of 7 NCR cities that have COC’s on the website of the COMELEC-run Pilipinas 2016 (http://bit.ly/1SXG518), while the plurality vice president in 4 of them. Robredo was neither the majority nor plurality vice president in any NCR city. However, Robredo dominated the Visayas. She was the majority vice president in 7 out of 16 provinces, while the plurality vice president in 6. Marcos Jr didn’t win as a majority vice president in any provinces in the Visayas, but was plurality vice president in 2.
Duterte owned Mindanao, the second most vote rich group of islands. He’s the majority president in 21 out of 22 provinces, and the plurality president in 1 of them. He didn’t do that well in Luzon and the Visayas. In the Visayas, he’s the majority president in Cebu, the most vote rich province in the country. He’s the majority president in one NCR city – Taguig-Pateros, while the plurality president in 8 Luzon provinces, 5 NCR cities, and 4 Visayan provinces.
Any movement to oust Duterte will face that formidable force. What awaits Robredo if that movement succeeds, which requires the support of the military, is a rebellion. This rebellion will be more vicious than the rebellion Gloria Arroyo encountered after Erap was ousted in 2001. At that time, Arroyo’s political legitimacy was by a mile much stronger than Robredo: Arroyo won with a huge and clean margin of around 6 million against Angara. Robredo won with a tiny margin beset with allegations of election fraud against Marcos Jr. And it’s safe to assume that those who voted for Marcos Jr aren’t convinced that Robredo won the elections fair and square. Darling, they are a fucking lot; and no you can’t just make them eat cake to appease their vicious appetite.
That a VP who has a very fragile political legitimacy will replace a president who has a stronger one is courting disaster. Robredo will spend most of her term consolidating power. She would do what you hate about what Duterte is currently doing: Putting people she could trust in critical positions – and those would be her own KKK. Political expediency would be the most decisive, if not the only factor, that would guide her selection of her alter egos. Her fragile presidency would require her to have people in her own circle of friends to helm the government. And tell me, how would Robredo quell the rebellion that awaits her without using the military? And what’s the tool presidents use to contain widespread rebellion?
Yup, your worst nightmare: Martial Law.